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Jun 20, 2013
06/13
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he is projecting the economy will get better, and we would agree. but now i think people are worried about the removal of the monetary stimulus, and they just don't have confidence yet in the economy. >> remember when we were hitting those new highs on almost a daily basis? everybody said, we need that pull-back to give people who haven't gotten gu tinto the mara chance to get into the mark. >> there's two things. there's sentiment on the fixed income markets. the fixed income markets have been overshooting. we have fixed income type of index and it has reached almost panic level at this point. generally when we see these panic levels in the fixed income market, three to six months later, we tend to see better returns with fixed income, so the bottom market is overdoing it in terms of the upside on yields. it doesn't mean they can't go a little bit further from here, but it feels like it's getting somewhat overdone at this point. >> jim, if you're not the rangeer, you're the big ranger here, so why do you have a range from 15-something to 17-somethi
he is projecting the economy will get better, and we would agree. but now i think people are worried about the removal of the monetary stimulus, and they just don't have confidence yet in the economy. >> remember when we were hitting those new highs on almost a daily basis? everybody said, we need that pull-back to give people who haven't gotten gu tinto the mara chance to get into the mark. >> there's two things. there's sentiment on the fixed income markets. the fixed income...
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Jun 21, 2013
06/13
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economy. you cannot help but notice tremendous change in china. you see entrepreneurs on the streets, and you see more freedom than has been enjoyed in the past generations and you see a country that is clearly moving in a more aggressive way economically. having said that, as i said in my opening statement, the one-party communist rule country violates basic human rights of its citizens. it's not good to disagree with of the government in china. they still have these education labor camps where you can beat the team for an extended period of time because you disagree with the government. i was so disappointed talking with religious leaders as to how the government stops any organized religion from being able to carry out its normal assembling its. and then most of the people in the country are locked in to where they are born and have a chance to benefit from the economic advancement of the country. you have the have and have-nots. we need to develop a long-term relationship with china. we ne
economy. you cannot help but notice tremendous change in china. you see entrepreneurs on the streets, and you see more freedom than has been enjoyed in the past generations and you see a country that is clearly moving in a more aggressive way economically. having said that, as i said in my opening statement, the one-party communist rule country violates basic human rights of its citizens. it's not good to disagree with of the government in china. they still have these education labor camps...
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Jun 16, 2013
06/13
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frustration with education is the cost routinely does this, it is the only area in the united states economy that has been exempt from the productivity magic in the last 20 years. because cost is doing this and quality is going nowhere in the education of the united states. we combined with georgia tech and the company and announced georgia tech will be launching a fully accredited program in computer science, a masters in which todayience. costs $40,000. next year, we will be introducing this degree for $7,000. i think $7,000 is high, but we can debate that. if the technical credential degree can be introduced at 20% of the cost, why cannot not be moved into secondary education, and why canication? that not be exported to sub- saharan africa and begin to introduce the highest quality education programs in the world entities developing economies. this is world changing, this democratizes education and is a major deal. it is a big deal. >> i am with georgetown, how are you? can you talk about video and how your video platform is doing? >> video is a wireless derived impact as well because whe
frustration with education is the cost routinely does this, it is the only area in the united states economy that has been exempt from the productivity magic in the last 20 years. because cost is doing this and quality is going nowhere in the education of the united states. we combined with georgia tech and the company and announced georgia tech will be launching a fully accredited program in computer science, a masters in which todayience. costs $40,000. next year, we will be introducing this...
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Jun 21, 2013
06/13
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the economy is getting better. but i think you have to slowly put your money that you have on the sidelines into cash. yesterday money only went to cash. you know, the commodity complex sold off. the bonds sold off. equities sold off. emerging markets got hammered. i think there's more dry powder on the sidelines. i think we just have to see if certain levels hold. but we're still very constructive going forward with a 1650 to 1700 s&p target. the problem is this. when volatility increases, anxiety increases. and investors seek certitude. the fed did not give us full certitude because they were talking one thing while the market was bringing rates up ahead of them. i think it's something we have to watch and just be flexible right now. >> you bring up an interesting point. the algorithms and the computerized trading. we've talked, you know, we were yus talking about someone else who was mentioned in morning money. i know that's something ron baron mentioned. doug cass was just talking about that. how big of a probl
the economy is getting better. but i think you have to slowly put your money that you have on the sidelines into cash. yesterday money only went to cash. you know, the commodity complex sold off. the bonds sold off. equities sold off. emerging markets got hammered. i think there's more dry powder on the sidelines. i think we just have to see if certain levels hold. but we're still very constructive going forward with a 1650 to 1700 s&p target. the problem is this. when volatility increases,...
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Jun 19, 2013
06/13
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of course, that depends on the economy and that the economy sticks to the script that the fed believes it will and, you know, that's most likely economic sen scenario and interest rate path. >> mark, what do you think of the timetable? do you think the economy is ready to have the training wheels come off? >> yeah, i do. you know, i think that by late this year, the fiscal head winds, the tax increases and spending cuts will begin to fade that will let the better private economy shine through that is a long narrative in story but i think it is the best and most likely story and yes, at that point i think it makes sense to start tapering qe ending and starting to raise interest rates. >> if the economy is getting better which allows the tapering of the qe, why did the markets react so negatively? >> yeah, good question. you know, if you read sort of the fine print in the fomc statement, it was pretty hawkish. they dowed back their worries about the risks to the economy. they lowered their forecast for the unemployment rate. they even dismissed the lower inflation to be temporary. i thin
of course, that depends on the economy and that the economy sticks to the script that the fed believes it will and, you know, that's most likely economic sen scenario and interest rate path. >> mark, what do you think of the timetable? do you think the economy is ready to have the training wheels come off? >> yeah, i do. you know, i think that by late this year, the fiscal head winds, the tax increases and spending cuts will begin to fade that will let the better private economy...
SFGTV: San Francisco Government Television
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Jun 23, 2013
06/13
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leaders, mayor lee, president chiu, the department of emergency management, the bay share and the sharing economy companies for getting this dialogue started so that we're ready when it's needed. thank you. (applause) >> thank you, nate. and thank you all for coming. this has been a great day today. we are going to get -- go back into our meeting and continue our dialogue, but mayor lee and president chiu and i believe nate and milicent also will be here to answer a few questions if you would like to. so, thank you all for coming. (applause) >> okay good morning, everyone welcome to the san francisco budget and finance meeting for june 18, 2013. i'm mark farrell i'm joined by other supervisors. i would like to thank the clerk of the committee as well as the members of sftv covering this meeting. mr. clerk any announcements >> yes, please silence all devises. all the items today will be on july agenda >> mr. clerk call fm one. >> ordinance appropriating one million $500,000 for the fiscal years 2012 and 13. >> okay. let's hear from the school district on this item please. >> thank you chair. hopef
leaders, mayor lee, president chiu, the department of emergency management, the bay share and the sharing economy companies for getting this dialogue started so that we're ready when it's needed. thank you. (applause) >> thank you, nate. and thank you all for coming. this has been a great day today. we are going to get -- go back into our meeting and continue our dialogue, but mayor lee and president chiu and i believe nate and milicent also will be here to answer a few questions if you...
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Jun 21, 2013
06/13
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the businesses that do better when the economy is getting better. which is after all the cause why bernanke is reigning in the magic carpet ride. i always like to take my cue from the market. always, meaning on a bad day, i ask myself, what group acted best? what is tipping its hand so when the futures selling lets up, it can roar. sometimes the action underneath the market isn't as dumb as it often looks. what do i come up with? how about the regional banks? despite the horrible action in the averages today, we witnessed this group of stocks performed better than they have, relative to the market. it's absolute if they went up. relative to market better than any time i have seen in the last six years. huntington bank shares, people's united connecticut. these were up a lot when the market was still okay. it was only down 250 points. i'm talking about bedrock local banks, the ones that have been a huge drain on the market. ones riddling people's portfolio from losses from the old days. we have one all the time. right? six years ago the stock was at
the businesses that do better when the economy is getting better. which is after all the cause why bernanke is reigning in the magic carpet ride. i always like to take my cue from the market. always, meaning on a bad day, i ask myself, what group acted best? what is tipping its hand so when the futures selling lets up, it can roar. sometimes the action underneath the market isn't as dumb as it often looks. what do i come up with? how about the regional banks? despite the horrible action in the...
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Jun 17, 2013
06/13
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the economy. not market, but overall economy. why do you think they need to stay around for so long? >> well, i don't think they do. i just think they will. i think if you look at how they've been talking lately and how they've changed their tone, they're talking a little more about i inflation, another reason to keep providing stimulus. i don't think that's by accident. i'd also say that i think a lot of what you're hearing out of the fed is really just designed to increase uncertainty in the near term because what they don't really -- what they can't let happen is for the markets to price in the end game. they can't let the market price in when tapering ends. they don't care if people know when it begins. if people know when tapering ends, they can figure out the pathway and all the smart people i work with can price that the second after it happens. it will be too disruptive. >> that's why the market is even reacting to the idea that tapering is going to come at some point. it used to be that you'd react to the change in inter
the economy. not market, but overall economy. why do you think they need to stay around for so long? >> well, i don't think they do. i just think they will. i think if you look at how they've been talking lately and how they've changed their tone, they're talking a little more about i inflation, another reason to keep providing stimulus. i don't think that's by accident. i'd also say that i think a lot of what you're hearing out of the fed is really just designed to increase uncertainty...
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Jun 21, 2013
06/13
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tona's economy is beginning slow. how much of an impact could that have on the u.s. economy? >> it could have a fairly significant impact. china was really an anchor of the early steps of the recovery. they stepped in really quickly, and now even in china, there are concerns about too much liquidity in the system. maybe they have done too much and created too much risk. the chinese economy is slowing, and that will certainly reverberate around the world very quickly if we do not see a handle on that soon. >> thank you very much indeed. >> thank you. >> you are watching "bbc world news." still to come on tonight's program -- stranded on a glacier in greenland. after their plane crashed, a crew lived one of the greatest survival stories in history. massive rescue operation is underway to reach survivors in the flood hit areas in india. at least 500 50 people had died, and more than 50,000 are stranded after floods swept away buildings and triggered landslides -- at least 550 people have died, and more than 50,000 are stranded. >> this iconic hindu shrine now completely washed a
tona's economy is beginning slow. how much of an impact could that have on the u.s. economy? >> it could have a fairly significant impact. china was really an anchor of the early steps of the recovery. they stepped in really quickly, and now even in china, there are concerns about too much liquidity in the system. maybe they have done too much and created too much risk. the chinese economy is slowing, and that will certainly reverberate around the world very quickly if we do not see a...
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Jun 19, 2013
06/13
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and the stocks are benefiting from the economy getting better and maybe eventually international economy getting better, the ones that did better during this timeframe. cheryl: i guess i stand corrected. we did sell on the news. want to ask you about that gdp production and whether you make any thing out of this. 2013, initially -- in march it was 23 to 28. today they came out and said foxbusiness.com to. cheryl: >> the economy is going through this fiscal drive. you mentioned there is fiscal worries. i think that you have to take that into account. more interesting is in the future years on how it will rebound. it implies that the fiscal drag will fall back. cheryl: and over to you about the differences here in the fed and what could be a change in. he was twice asked what his plans or and refused to answer the question. but at the same time, everyone seems to think the majority of those out there say janet will be the next federal reserve chairman. but that change is still unclear. what do you think happens? what is your prediction? >> my prediction would be janet, but i would caution
and the stocks are benefiting from the economy getting better and maybe eventually international economy getting better, the ones that did better during this timeframe. cheryl: i guess i stand corrected. we did sell on the news. want to ask you about that gdp production and whether you make any thing out of this. 2013, initially -- in march it was 23 to 28. today they came out and said foxbusiness.com to. cheryl: >> the economy is going through this fiscal drive. you mentioned there is...
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Jun 20, 2013
06/13
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zee an economy going through withdrawal and some of the economy and it's not a lot of it was addicted to this cheap money. the reality is i like what the fed chairman did. he came out with this when the market was near its top. had he done that when the market was down 200 s&p point from here it might be a different story, but i like the fact that he's let a little of this fluff come off, and i'm a buyer of this break and with the withdrawal comes and aren't you supposed to have some positive feeling before you hit withdrawals? >> it's not only that. it's the policy itself that i'm objecting to. >> katie, welcome to the show. you've got to jump in. this is a rough crowd. you've got to jump in. i'd like it hear your take on today's market on the inerds of this market including gold which got slaughtered today and only the dollar held up nicely. what did you learn from looking inside the market whether it's trading volume or sectors in the s&p. what did you learn? >> a lot of things from today, in fact. it was a very important day in a lot of levels and volume was one thing that bears p
zee an economy going through withdrawal and some of the economy and it's not a lot of it was addicted to this cheap money. the reality is i like what the fed chairman did. he came out with this when the market was near its top. had he done that when the market was down 200 s&p point from here it might be a different story, but i like the fact that he's let a little of this fluff come off, and i'm a buyer of this break and with the withdrawal comes and aren't you supposed to have some...
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Jun 22, 2013
06/13
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how do you assess the global economy and the u.s. economy, and the extent to which there is any momentum or possibility for faster growth? >> basically, i would describe both the united states and the rest of the world as being in a sluggish environment where effective demand, if we can use that old-fashioned term, is inadequate to galvanize the system in the growth. yet there is not enough downside weakness to create any significant short-term changes that i can see. there are very huge imbalances out there. what i find startling is there are so many things -- which nothing is happening. for example, the european central bank had this huge trillion-euro rise a couple years ago of the assets in their balance sheet. then it came down a little bit. and for the last several months it has been absolutely flat. in other words, the extent to hich nothing is happening. it is just not credible with the huge amount of assets in central been spelling seats -- central bank balance sheets. there is very little of that spilling over into the mark
how do you assess the global economy and the u.s. economy, and the extent to which there is any momentum or possibility for faster growth? >> basically, i would describe both the united states and the rest of the world as being in a sluggish environment where effective demand, if we can use that old-fashioned term, is inadequate to galvanize the system in the growth. yet there is not enough downside weakness to create any significant short-term changes that i can see. there are very huge...
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Jun 17, 2013
06/13
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mainly billboard oriented is very much tied to the health of the economy. the ceo has over 750 advertising displays globally, including 200 in the united states. that's a lot. both stocks are trading around $7 and change. they got to that level in different ways. clear channel has been trading stoodways, 6% year-to-date. opko rallied like crazy. it's up 47% to $7. let's get to the head-to-head face off, please. >> buy, buy, buy, sell, sell, sell. >> miami versus san santonio speculative edition, espn. this is what you want to be doing. at the moment, clear channel has a major upside opportunity coming from digital displays. take the lcd flat skroen based billboorsd, they can show the movie advertisements, or scroll through ads the ones you want to watch while driving. thoo they are more lucrative and cost ahem heck of a lot to build out. the company has 10% of their sales from wall scapes from all displays and what are known as spectaculars. these are big customized display structures that often use video and multi-dimensional figures with lettering, along
mainly billboard oriented is very much tied to the health of the economy. the ceo has over 750 advertising displays globally, including 200 in the united states. that's a lot. both stocks are trading around $7 and change. they got to that level in different ways. clear channel has been trading stoodways, 6% year-to-date. opko rallied like crazy. it's up 47% to $7. let's get to the head-to-head face off, please. >> buy, buy, buy, sell, sell, sell. >> miami versus san santonio...
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Jun 15, 2013
06/13
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its purpose is to make japanese businesses more competitive and to bolster the country's economy. the plan includes tripling the value of infrastructure exports by 2020 to over $300 billion. it also calls for establishing special economic zones to provide tax incentives and permitting sales of medicine online. abe also wants to promote the export of medical services and technologies to a market worth over $50 billion by 2030. some private firms welcome the new growth plan. japan's the leading manufacturer of medical image equipment is one of them. >> translator: we are looking forward to promoting our high quality medical products with government support. >> reporter: one economist says a growth plan with specific goals bodes well for the economy. >> setting a new target over prime minister's abe's growth strategy is very easy to understand, what trend of the policy measures that prime minister is going to be thinking about. so i think that is a very positive thing for japanese economy. >> reporter: but many market players aren't convinced. they say the plan lacks new ideas and co
its purpose is to make japanese businesses more competitive and to bolster the country's economy. the plan includes tripling the value of infrastructure exports by 2020 to over $300 billion. it also calls for establishing special economic zones to provide tax incentives and permitting sales of medicine online. abe also wants to promote the export of medical services and technologies to a market worth over $50 billion by 2030. some private firms welcome the new growth plan. japan's the leading...
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Jun 19, 2013
06/13
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i see a lot more softness in the economy. if i go back and read the beige book, i didn't everybody see the word robust ever. so i don't think that we'll be looking at a change in fed stance for the rest of this year. >> cody, too, from honeywell when he was on here, he was like, no, i don't see anything. so that's not even high tech stuff necessarily. julia, where are you on this? >> i think that they will try to continue to socialize the idea of adjusting the pace of purchases. i think that it's something that the committee wants to do. the committee is getting nervous with never ending qe at the same pace and then ever expanding balance sheet. there are many on the committee that do see progress, particularly in the labor market. and i think that's the key. we do need to get a better sense of what they're looking for in the labor market, number one. do we have to see hiring get even better than it's been. or just more of the same for a longer period good enough to take a step back. remember, to them, tapering is not a tight
i see a lot more softness in the economy. if i go back and read the beige book, i didn't everybody see the word robust ever. so i don't think that we'll be looking at a change in fed stance for the rest of this year. >> cody, too, from honeywell when he was on here, he was like, no, i don't see anything. so that's not even high tech stuff necessarily. julia, where are you on this? >> i think that they will try to continue to socialize the idea of adjusting the pace of purchases. i...
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Jun 18, 2013
06/13
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mainly billboard oriented is very much tied to the health of the economy. has over 750 advertising displays globally, including 200 in the united states. that's a lot. both stocks are trading around $7 and change. they got to that level in very different ways. clear channel has been trading sideways, 6% year-to-date. opko has rallied like crazy. it's up 47% to $7. let's get to the head-to-head face off, please. >> buy, buy, buy, sell, sell, sell. >> miami versus san antonio, the speculative edition, espn. this is what you want to be doing. who plays better offense? at the moment, clear channel has a major upside opportunity coming from digital displays. take the lcd flat screen based billboards, they can show moving advertisements, or scroll through ads, the ones you want to watch while driving. they are more lucrative and cost a heck of a lot to build out. the company has 10% of their sales from wallscapes, from all displays and what are known as spectaculars. these are big customized display structures that often use video and multi-dimensional figures or
mainly billboard oriented is very much tied to the health of the economy. has over 750 advertising displays globally, including 200 in the united states. that's a lot. both stocks are trading around $7 and change. they got to that level in very different ways. clear channel has been trading sideways, 6% year-to-date. opko has rallied like crazy. it's up 47% to $7. let's get to the head-to-head face off, please. >> buy, buy, buy, sell, sell, sell. >> miami versus san antonio, the...
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Jun 18, 2013
06/13
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economy would not only be a stall on the u.s. economy as we see the policies set be i the fed are being imitated this is what draggy has been doing in europe and in japan. i many own sense is that for a short period of time, probably another two or three quarters. it's important for america to continue to provide the leadership that will allow a global recovery to occur. then we do have to get on with the business of solving structural issues. i don't think it will be easier to solve structural issues if we find ourselves back in the state in the recovery we currently have is going to be questioned. >> i think that's right nevada the confidence fa we node to keep if economy going seems to be correlated to the market's perception of what the fed is doing. and maybe we're surprised by that a little bit because the fundamentals shouldn't be so checked. but the pact is, they are. the psychology, the canesian animal spirits, if you will, seem to be realed to the market's reactions to where the fed is on the issue. and i think what you
economy would not only be a stall on the u.s. economy as we see the policies set be i the fed are being imitated this is what draggy has been doing in europe and in japan. i many own sense is that for a short period of time, probably another two or three quarters. it's important for america to continue to provide the leadership that will allow a global recovery to occur. then we do have to get on with the business of solving structural issues. i don't think it will be easier to solve structural...
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Jun 21, 2013
06/13
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is the economy strong enough? is the economy around the world strong enough to support the market at this level if they're going to pull support away. >> i think what he's trying to say is the economy he hopes will be strong enough. they're not pulling the rug out right now. they've made it clear they're extremely data dependent. i think they're expecting the economy to be strong enough, and i think they're expecting that when it is, they will start to pull back. to be clear, you know, you made a comment earlier about are we ahead of ourselves from a fundamental perspective? i think the market is very forward looking, right? so the point there is i think the market is looking ahead six months and saying, we're going to be in a very different place -- >> hang on, hang on. i understand that point, but i don't think that's where we are because we were artificially inflated by the fed, and the assumption was that the fundamentals would come up to support us, and, therefore, it's not a normal situation. what we're sayi
is the economy strong enough? is the economy around the world strong enough to support the market at this level if they're going to pull support away. >> i think what he's trying to say is the economy he hopes will be strong enough. they're not pulling the rug out right now. they've made it clear they're extremely data dependent. i think they're expecting the economy to be strong enough, and i think they're expecting that when it is, they will start to pull back. to be clear, you know,...
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Jun 20, 2013
06/13
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who could believe that anyone would actually want our economy to be weak? who would want people thrown out of work? that's how bonds work. people want to bid them up on bad news and sell them on good news. normally, you wouldn't have to worry about any of this. these are not normal times. again, imagine the united states is a stock that pays an okay dividend. we know that as stocks go down the yield goes higher. that's because the dividend stays the same but when you divide it by the share price the declining stock, well, the yield grows. right? i mean, pays $4 dividend. it's at 100. and then the stock goes to 80. well, obviously the dividend's yield is higher. so when sellers knock this country's stock down, it gets a bigger yield. suddenly the stock of the united states, continuing the fictional analogy-s once again competitive with the stocks of individual companies that people are hiding in on a yield basis. remember that tent, the hiders and capital appreciation people? yeah, that's right. the price of the u.s. fell so hard today off bernanke's happier
who could believe that anyone would actually want our economy to be weak? who would want people thrown out of work? that's how bonds work. people want to bid them up on bad news and sell them on good news. normally, you wouldn't have to worry about any of this. these are not normal times. again, imagine the united states is a stock that pays an okay dividend. we know that as stocks go down the yield goes higher. that's because the dividend stays the same but when you divide it by the share...
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Jun 20, 2013
06/13
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economy and to cisco? >> i think this is where the fed deserves a lot of credit in the last couple of years. we haven't done things with deficit spending and repatriation to stimulate the economy. the fed used all of the skills that they had. so you've got a track record of calling it right. if they believe it's time to slowly taper back a little bit, the main thing is the economy is in better shape. >> it's not tapering that you want, you want tax reform in the united states. you want to get that money which you have to hold off shore for u.s. jobs, yes? >> the u.s. tax system is broken. we've waited for years for it to come back. we're assuming that's not going to happen. we don't think that it's going to happen. that's why you see me traveling throughout asia pacific, throughout europe and you've seen the majority of our acquisitions in the past year in terms of the big ones, at least half over seas. >> you can't repay the try eight the $47 billion? >> i can't repay the try eight the $47 billion. i'm on
economy and to cisco? >> i think this is where the fed deserves a lot of credit in the last couple of years. we haven't done things with deficit spending and repatriation to stimulate the economy. the fed used all of the skills that they had. so you've got a track record of calling it right. if they believe it's time to slowly taper back a little bit, the main thing is the economy is in better shape. >> it's not tapering that you want, you want tax reform in the united states. you...
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Jun 20, 2013
06/13
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the basic economy around the world is okay. the u.s. is growing somewhere around 2.5%. >> rose: better than europe but not as good as china. >> and purpose's pretty much hit the bottom where it's going to go. it's gather no net gross now and asia has slowed down. it's getting close to a bottom, and we'll have global growth somewhere in the 3.5%, 3.75% zone. so we're not looking at things going backwards. potentially a little bit in asia with you there's still plenty of growth there. china for example, escort of a worst case most people look at would be 6 to 7. the chinese themselves are thinking 7 to 8 to just be not put a precise point to it. any time you have major countries growing at that level, somebody may be critical, it's a little slower than the old 9 or 10 but it's still remarkable. so the overall environment isn't as pessimistic if you will, as it's been. u.s. in particular is quite interesting because we have a revolution going on in the energy business in the united states, which is presenting -- >> rose: what impact on the
the basic economy around the world is okay. the u.s. is growing somewhere around 2.5%. >> rose: better than europe but not as good as china. >> and purpose's pretty much hit the bottom where it's going to go. it's gather no net gross now and asia has slowed down. it's getting close to a bottom, and we'll have global growth somewhere in the 3.5%, 3.75% zone. so we're not looking at things going backwards. potentially a little bit in asia with you there's still plenty of growth there....
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Jun 21, 2013
06/13
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what's your assessment of our economy? >> yeah. what's interesting, larry, is we know that the fiscal drag is hitting right now. the combination of tax increases and spending cuts should be the most onerous right now in the second and third quarter and yet, the u.s. economy has held in there fairly well and i'm not so optimistic that we'll get through the two quarters without a drop some place and i'm concerned about not only china's pmi, but i think we'll get softening economic data here that will take some of the taper off of the tapering that we're getting from the fed. in other words, yields should back down here after they race up a bit more. i think 275 on the ten-year might be the peak there and the midpoint in the summer we'll question the u.s. economy a little bit more because of the fiscal drag and just one more thing. two weeks ago, i got a meeting with orrin hatch, and he's obviously the ranking minority member of the central tax writing authority in the congress on the senate side, we know that tax reform is moving for
what's your assessment of our economy? >> yeah. what's interesting, larry, is we know that the fiscal drag is hitting right now. the combination of tax increases and spending cuts should be the most onerous right now in the second and third quarter and yet, the u.s. economy has held in there fairly well and i'm not so optimistic that we'll get through the two quarters without a drop some place and i'm concerned about not only china's pmi, but i think we'll get softening economic data here...
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Jun 17, 2013
06/13
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on the economy for example. so the "new york times" ran a piece over the weekend, they were basically saying the new normal of sluggish growth now over and we should get much more optimistic about the economy. and then you hear today that the fed is possibly going to down grade its own estimates this week at the meeting and that will become the main focus. >> with all due respect to the people who work at the fed, they are notorious for faulty estimates, if you would. and so you can't have it there but there is an old anecdote about somebody helping plan d day invasion and he was a meteorologist and he kept say i don't go want to give you anymore reports because i think it's no better than a 50/50 shot and the general said send it in any way, we need it for planning. so even though something is inferior, people keep looking to it. >> and just briefly, i know in the last couple weeks we've been trading off different things. first it was what was happening in japan and the yen, then what was happening here in the
on the economy for example. so the "new york times" ran a piece over the weekend, they were basically saying the new normal of sluggish growth now over and we should get much more optimistic about the economy. and then you hear today that the fed is possibly going to down grade its own estimates this week at the meeting and that will become the main focus. >> with all due respect to the people who work at the fed, they are notorious for faulty estimates, if you would. and so you...
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Jun 21, 2013
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>> the real economy is. i think that china is turning out to not be as important as we thought how the real economy does, but the real economy is not controlling the stock market. the real economy is a sideshow. what matters are bonds and futures traders who come in on every new piece of bad chinese news and blow out our market because they haven't figured out yet that we're not hostage to china, and i think it's the perception, it hasn't been able to get to the point where we realize in -- traders realized that china is not the be all and end all that it was. >> and i think also, too, there's just different cultural context when it comes to banking between the u.s. and china. if we saw our overnight rates shoot to 25%. it would be apocalyptic, right? >> absolutely. >> but they have a more infantile banking system there and it doesn't feet here like it does in the united states. >> one of the things that does worry me. brazil, a million people on the street. not protesting they wished they had a more capital
>> the real economy is. i think that china is turning out to not be as important as we thought how the real economy does, but the real economy is not controlling the stock market. the real economy is a sideshow. what matters are bonds and futures traders who come in on every new piece of bad chinese news and blow out our market because they haven't figured out yet that we're not hostage to china, and i think it's the perception, it hasn't been able to get to the point where we realize in...
SFGTV: San Francisco Government Television
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Jun 21, 2013
06/13
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and they are becoming a big organization and the economy and i think, and i think. >> and yesterday i take a woman she said, i paid the meter at 6:00 and i said yes, these are a lot of trick at the post-age signs and you don't know. i think that a lot of people get told. i know how to fix it. but i don't... this is not my application. but i know how to fix, you can really lose 60 or 70 million, if you pick the sign and because the definition of this sign has some kind of unclear. and the business out of town people and tourists are becoming a target just like us, the tax it driver are an easy target. and you don't complaint and because we are just the taxi cab driver, they are weak, thank you. >> jim hickey followed by brian smith. >> good afternoon. >> thank you. >> my name is jim hickey and i live in the city and so does my wife and son and i commute every day by bike and my wife does too, i want to build a safer city for my son to ride a bike in. right now i feel that i live by masonic in the north panhandle neighborhood, you did a great job with oak and i would love to see the ful
and they are becoming a big organization and the economy and i think, and i think. >> and yesterday i take a woman she said, i paid the meter at 6:00 and i said yes, these are a lot of trick at the post-age signs and you don't know. i think that a lot of people get told. i know how to fix it. but i don't... this is not my application. but i know how to fix, you can really lose 60 or 70 million, if you pick the sign and because the definition of this sign has some kind of unclear. and the...
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Jun 18, 2013
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economy and this wave of investment. >> you see it coming. not fed on, fed off stuff, you actually see it, peter. >> i see it coming. you know, there's like $100 billion just in the chemical industry. and the -- i talked to the people and i know the backlogs there. i do think the u.s., the tide shifted. and the u.s. is the place to be. vis-a-vis -- or versus the rest of the world. >> everyone doubted you at 70. thought you should i think that that air products. i'm going with you. i believe in the industrial renaissance, it will happen. airgas will benefit because of the businesses you have. i want to thank you peter, you did a great job at airgas. and the new president and ceo. thank you so much for your time. good to see you. >> thank you. >>> the biggest names making big calls at the biggest investor event of the year. >> i'm going to pose to you that hewlett-packard is the best value. >> be a part with jack lew. go to deliveringalpha.com and reserve your spot now. >> i want to apologize in advance. >> from institutional investor and cnbc.
economy and this wave of investment. >> you see it coming. not fed on, fed off stuff, you actually see it, peter. >> i see it coming. you know, there's like $100 billion just in the chemical industry. and the -- i talked to the people and i know the backlogs there. i do think the u.s., the tide shifted. and the u.s. is the place to be. vis-a-vis -- or versus the rest of the world. >> everyone doubted you at 70. thought you should i think that that air products. i'm going with...
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Jun 16, 2013
06/13
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. >> issues at the forefront of people's minds are economy and unemployment. iran has a young population that is highly educated, but many are struggling to find jobs. >> hassan rouhani is not new to politics and is an outspoken critic of ahmadinejad. his election in 2005 he resigned from his post. >> i expect him to at least record -- restore the economic situation to what it was eight years ago. i live in my country and i expect to live in my country comfortably. >> i wanted economy to be fixed. that is one of the most important problems. i used to be a shopkeeper, but i quit. is note hassan rouhani the -- >> if we want to choose a way to develop a country and ensure the welfare of the people and establish peace and stability, there is no better way than enforcing the law and remaining committed to the law. >> hassan rouhani is a longtime friend of the man who holds the real power in iran, the supreme leader. while he says he wants to reach out by getting away from extremism in foreign-policy, he has almost -- also promised there will be no surrender to west
. >> issues at the forefront of people's minds are economy and unemployment. iran has a young population that is highly educated, but many are struggling to find jobs. >> hassan rouhani is not new to politics and is an outspoken critic of ahmadinejad. his election in 2005 he resigned from his post. >> i expect him to at least record -- restore the economic situation to what it was eight years ago. i live in my country and i expect to live in my country comfortably. >> i...
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Jun 19, 2013
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to the fed's forecast for the economy. if you look at the march forecasts, they were still forecasting 2013 gdp at 2.5%. and while i don't think they will go down to the sort of level that the imf was forecasting at 1.9 last friday, down grading that forecast of gdp, downgrading their inflation forecasts to levels which they previously described as sub optimal should offer markets some reassurance that as much as bernanke will stress tapering probably is going to happen, it's a matter of when. and he won't pre-judge his options. it's not something which means immediately that interest rates are going to rise. one of the things that markets seem to have to gotten, that when the fed outlined its qe exit plan in 2011, it did actually say the first thing it would do was not raise interest rates but stop rolling off or reinvesting maturing debt. >> the other thing of course is they won't be buying any fresh stuff even when they stop. and tapering doesn't mean they stop buying, just stop buying 85 billion a month. if they went f
to the fed's forecast for the economy. if you look at the march forecasts, they were still forecasting 2013 gdp at 2.5%. and while i don't think they will go down to the sort of level that the imf was forecasting at 1.9 last friday, down grading that forecast of gdp, downgrading their inflation forecasts to levels which they previously described as sub optimal should offer markets some reassurance that as much as bernanke will stress tapering probably is going to happen, it's a matter of when....
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Jun 21, 2013
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i think it needs to broaden the economy. that's very, very difficult for brazil at the moment. >> i mean, it does -- all roads lead to china. this is where, you know, this liquidity story, the timing of the pboc decision to try and teach the bank and the financial system a lesson is -- is really unfortunate. because, as you were saying earlier, it's really bad timing coming at the same point as we're trying to come to terms with this -- or accurately price the prospect of fed tapering. and, you know, this does pose quite a growth risk going into the second half for china, i think. >> what is the -- what is this -- 7% growth rates from 9%. they're trying to rein in the credit in the secondary banking system, chris. how is that going to spill out into asian -- asian emerging markets? >> it's going to be -- it's going to be quite powerfully negative, i think. and i think the other thing as proliferation countries are dealing with is the yen. essentially japan is exporting deflation. they may be trying to create inflation in the
i think it needs to broaden the economy. that's very, very difficult for brazil at the moment. >> i mean, it does -- all roads lead to china. this is where, you know, this liquidity story, the timing of the pboc decision to try and teach the bank and the financial system a lesson is -- is really unfortunate. because, as you were saying earlier, it's really bad timing coming at the same point as we're trying to come to terms with this -- or accurately price the prospect of fed tapering....
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Jun 22, 2013
06/13
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with the way the health care system is, one-seventh -- one-sixth of our economy i could never be a nurse, i can't look at a paper cut i pass out. god bless beam who do it. i don't think more government is the answer. >> or grants? >> i would like to see another stud rewhere those grants are. i don't want that -- >> got to give -- government has to spend food stamps now find nursing. eventually margaret thatcher said you run out of other people's money. we have to decide what is most important. >> do you agree? >> absolutely. let's be honest about what's going on here, we have structural sexism going on and i don't have any easy answers to solve it. my family has done it's part. both my sisters have done their part. >> you have definitely contributed to the lack -- you have push the down the nursing shortage we thank you very much for that. >> you're welcome. >> that's it for this edition of "to the contrary." please follow me on twitter @bonnieerbe and @tothecontrary and visit our website, pbs.org/tothecontrary, where the discussion continues. whether you agree or think, to the contrary,
with the way the health care system is, one-seventh -- one-sixth of our economy i could never be a nurse, i can't look at a paper cut i pass out. god bless beam who do it. i don't think more government is the answer. >> or grants? >> i would like to see another stud rewhere those grants are. i don't want that -- >> got to give -- government has to spend food stamps now find nursing. eventually margaret thatcher said you run out of other people's money. we have to decide what...
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china's economy has slowed down after several years of self reported steady growth but what do we make of all this and what does it mean for the average consumer who earlier i spoke with the well traveled jim rogers and author of street smarts adventures on the road and the markets i first asked him about black markets and what country today has the biggest black market. if your theory has a big black market these days i don't really know any other so i go there i don't have black markets and i'm not sure what the very end but you're exactly right you know black markets think that's a big thing for the currency it tells you something is wrong you don't know what's wrong. like taking your temperature or you know you're sick. but you don't know exactly what it is it's a question i don't really know of any black market right there i have. to go some places that have a pretty well i was thinking mostly of cyprus and what they've been through the past several months. i'm sure there's a black market for your insight but i just never been there which i reprogrammed. india well you also talk a
china's economy has slowed down after several years of self reported steady growth but what do we make of all this and what does it mean for the average consumer who earlier i spoke with the well traveled jim rogers and author of street smarts adventures on the road and the markets i first asked him about black markets and what country today has the biggest black market. if your theory has a big black market these days i don't really know any other so i go there i don't have black markets and...
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Jun 22, 2013
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the economy has to grow on its own volition. you cannot have this artificially-induced said said -- fed stimulus. itke any drug, it wears off. may have already started. it is not as effective, so we might see some corrections in the market going forward. the fed might come out like bullard came out and said, -- and say, he is only kidding. he is not kidding.the markets are already moving against it. we will see how far it goes. right now, raising taxes is a hotly-debated economic issue. most economists -- ic issuebated economy among economists. you can imagine what site i am on. i am not in favor of tax hikes because it kills the timing. christina romer said that is true. the endgame said -- the end game is not going to be pretty. host: an editorial cartoon shows fed chairman ben bernanke pulling the rug on quantitative easing.stephen idaho falls, idaho. falls, idaho.aho good morning. caller: good morning. i was wondering if printing dollars is a flat tax that president obama and his administration could not possibly pass otherw
the economy has to grow on its own volition. you cannot have this artificially-induced said said -- fed stimulus. itke any drug, it wears off. may have already started. it is not as effective, so we might see some corrections in the market going forward. the fed might come out like bullard came out and said, -- and say, he is only kidding. he is not kidding.the markets are already moving against it. we will see how far it goes. right now, raising taxes is a hotly-debated economic issue. most...
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you said you're not the world's best market timer but you also noted the slowdown in the chinese economy and how this has depressed commodity prices but you're also on record as being bullish on china and their currency the rim and b. in particular so when what do you see is the middle ground here i mean how bad could things get in china and what would need to happen to finally see them deep haggis from the u.s. dollar. boy you know if i were china i would do it by two thousand jenner two thousand and eleven or two thousand and twelve just shows you how much i know about when they got to. the chinese have no reason not to make their current convertible now i'm not chinese so obviously gotta do what they want to i would expect that to come any time now they've been making more and more strides towards opening it up as a response they've been opening it since two thousand and five in a recent thing they've certainly made a lot of progress towards opening for them. to come any time a problem in the next two or three years they're going the chinese have slowed down their economy for good rea
you said you're not the world's best market timer but you also noted the slowdown in the chinese economy and how this has depressed commodity prices but you're also on record as being bullish on china and their currency the rim and b. in particular so when what do you see is the middle ground here i mean how bad could things get in china and what would need to happen to finally see them deep haggis from the u.s. dollar. boy you know if i were china i would do it by two thousand jenner two...
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Jun 22, 2013
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another driver of the economy has slowed down of late. slowed down for all but the galleries of restoration hardware. there's been a rough couple of weeks for the consumer package good names. they had been viewed as bond market equivalents. was that proctor up for real, was that j&j rally for real? we have to know. when they report on wednesday, big g. and mccormick and conagra report on thursday, we'll find out if they can actually have more than just a dead cat bounce. if the numbers are good and the stocks go up maybe they're no longer hostage to the tnx i told you to follow. but you know, if the tnx goes higher and the stocks go down, we're in the same world of hurt. why am i showing this? this is from mccormick spice, old bay spice the special ravens model. i think it's cool. it might not matter if the interest rates keep going higher though, so remember it's the bond market stupid. two companies -- two companies that delivered terrific quarters last time around, nike and accenture give us the report cards on thursday. nike has been
another driver of the economy has slowed down of late. slowed down for all but the galleries of restoration hardware. there's been a rough couple of weeks for the consumer package good names. they had been viewed as bond market equivalents. was that proctor up for real, was that j&j rally for real? we have to know. when they report on wednesday, big g. and mccormick and conagra report on thursday, we'll find out if they can actually have more than just a dead cat bounce. if the numbers are...
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Jun 19, 2013
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we knew the economy was improving. we're looking at the numbers, the way the federal reserve is looking at the numbers. unemployment has improved a bit. housing has certainly improved. what's wrong with the story, jeff? >> i think the market is overreacting. i agree with your second guest. it's going to be interesting to me to see if they can pile on here the rest of this week. i have been looking for some kind of intermediate top. i thought it would come in july. but we are very close to where i think you're in a place where you could get the first meaningful pullback, and if the markets don't correct themselves and start back up, i'd say in the next day or two, i'd say that pullback is here. >> all right. let me get to gordon, because he's been on the floor watching the activity, finishing up, settling his trades. gordon, what did you see at the end of the day? i know we were going down, down, down, as the market digested that we could, in fact, see the tapering begin in september of this year. but at the end of the
we knew the economy was improving. we're looking at the numbers, the way the federal reserve is looking at the numbers. unemployment has improved a bit. housing has certainly improved. what's wrong with the story, jeff? >> i think the market is overreacting. i agree with your second guest. it's going to be interesting to me to see if they can pile on here the rest of this week. i have been looking for some kind of intermediate top. i thought it would come in july. but we are very close to...
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Jun 20, 2013
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that the economy is stronger. and that it is a lack of confidence in the economy's ability a to stand on its two feet without all of this liquidity. >> and do you think this is old-fashioned profit taking? we've had good gains for 2013. we've had good gains for last four years. is it time to take something off the table for that reason. >> think i so. and a couple dayes with twloost days of run up with the announcement yesterday was short-covering. so i think you have people on the shore wagon as well. i think it is a combination of profits and the move down today. >> have you a triple witch tomorrow right? expiration coming tomorrow. how does that impact things? >> i think that exaggerates the moods. usually you see a lot of activity and volume and movement. and what we have seen the last few days is a heavy down days. i think the on coming combination exaggerate the move and puts pressure in that direction of the movement in this case down and exaggerate this move. not quite a bit but, significantly amount today
that the economy is stronger. and that it is a lack of confidence in the economy's ability a to stand on its two feet without all of this liquidity. >> and do you think this is old-fashioned profit taking? we've had good gains for 2013. we've had good gains for last four years. is it time to take something off the table for that reason. >> think i so. and a couple dayes with twloost days of run up with the announcement yesterday was short-covering. so i think you have people on the...
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Jun 20, 2013
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in today's cover story....how the fed decision will effect the economy short and long term. plus.... why one analyst says its a buyers market for muncipal bonds. and....bill buster.... why you may be wasting hundreds of dollars on your cell phone bills. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas good morning!it's thursday, june 20th. im angela miles. in today's first look: the market's taper caper. stocks fell dramatically yesterday on word from the chairman -- the federal reserve may taper its bond buying program by the end of the year. the dow fell more than 200 points, the nasdaq deopped 39 and the s&p 23... as traders yanked money out of the stock market. gold and oil also sold off. in irs updates, fbi agentsare said to be to working on a criminal probe into scrutiny of conservative groups. while an irs employee contends the targeting did not originate from the white house. and dunkin' donuts reportedly goes gluten free with some its doughnuts and muffins.dunkin makes the move ahead of rivals mcdonald
in today's cover story....how the fed decision will effect the economy short and long term. plus.... why one analyst says its a buyers market for muncipal bonds. and....bill buster.... why you may be wasting hundreds of dollars on your cell phone bills. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas good morning!it's thursday, june 20th. im angela miles. in today's first look: the market's taper caper. stocks fell dramatically...
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Jun 20, 2013
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that's good for the economy too. i don't think we've absorbed just how good for the american economy having some predictability in our immigration policy is. i'll tell you, there's a famous latino boxer who started a company to do home loans. why? why? because he actually figured out that if suddenly people who are here and know they can stay here, what are they going to do? they're going to buy a house. he wants to be first in line to help them get that loan. that's the kind of economic activity that i would hope to see as a result of immigration reform. we ought to be talking about that instead of talking about border, fences, security. >> oh, why. border security. we have to leave it there and pick it up another time. >> thank you. >>> up next, oh, the anticipation. supreme court, why do you tease us so? ♪ anticipation is making me wait ♪ wait♪ ♪ >>> it is the most important decision the supreme court justice has made all week. justice samuel alito decided to throw the first ball in last night rangers' gam
that's good for the economy too. i don't think we've absorbed just how good for the american economy having some predictability in our immigration policy is. i'll tell you, there's a famous latino boxer who started a company to do home loans. why? why? because he actually figured out that if suddenly people who are here and know they can stay here, what are they going to do? they're going to buy a house. he wants to be first in line to help them get that loan. that's the kind of economic...